In our history there has been a rash of junk science in pursuit of a political agenda, such is the case of the science behind the smoking ban. The vast majority of the studies clearly show no statistical significance. The courts will not accept anything less then a relative risk less then 2 as causation for any disease and yet we are passing laws on much smaller results. Also if 1 is included in the CI the results are considered statistically insignificant. Here is a table so that you can judge for yourself. These facts did not stop anti-smoking activists who think that they have collective rights not in the constitution.
No they used a questionable method called Meta Analysis .Much has been written about this questionable method. For one thing there is no set standard as to how much weight to give each study and the other is publication bias.
If meta analysis is to have a future, perhaps it will be due to registries that allow studies to be tracked from their inception and not just on publication. This would make it impossible to publish the results of trials showing benefit while suppressing those that do not. Many medical journals now require that studies be registered at ClinicalTrials.gov before they start in order to be eligible for publication. This may eventually solve the problem of publication bias. It would not capture everything, but it would capture prospectively a (large enough?) cohort of studies. I am less confident of whether it will be able to address the differing quality of the studies or subtle differences in the way outcomes are studied.
At the moment, it is difficult to improve upon the remarks of John C. Bailar, III, taken from his letter to The New England Journal of Medicine, 338 (1998), 62, in response to letters regarding LeLorier et al. (1997), “Discrepancies Between Meta-Analyses and Subsequent Large Randomized, Controlled Trials”, NEJM, 337, 536-542 and his (Bailar’s) accompanying editorial, 559-561:
My objections to meta-analysis are purely pragmatic. It does not work nearly as well as we might want it to work. The problems are so deep and so numerous that the results are simply not reliable. The work of LeLorier et al. adds to the evidence that meta-analysis simply does not work very well in practice.
As it is practiced and as it is reported in our leading journals, meta-analysis is often deeply flawed. Many people cite high-sounding guidelines, and I am sure that all truly want to do a superior analysis, but meta-analysis often fails in ways that seem to be invisible to the analyst.
Bailer was also quoted in the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence Page 389
[P]roblems have been so frequent and so deep, and overstatements of the strength of conclusions so
extreme, that one might well conclude there is something seriously and fundamentally wrong with the
method. For the present . . . I still prefer the thoughtful, old-fashioned review of the literature by a
knowledgeable expert who explains and defends the judgments that are presented. We have not yet
reached a stage where these judgments can be passed on, even in part, to a formalized process such as
meta-analysis.
There lies the rub, not only was there publication bias, but deliberate bias. Tobacco control’s studies were based on cherry picked studies the first of which was the 1992 EPA study. This study was not only thrown out in Federal Court but was dismissed by the Congressional Research Service. The EPA has had a long history of producing junk science based on political agenda.
A problem that goes on to this very day.
Of course this applies to the Surgeon Generals report which was done by many of the same activist who did the flawed EPA report.
Jonathan M. Samet, M.D., and the 1992 EPA Report
One might wonder how omissions, distortions, and exaggerations like those pointed out above could occur in a document as important as a Surgeon General’s Report on ETS. To better understand this phenomena one must realize that Samet has dealt with the ETS issue in this manner for many years. In particular, he played a major role in the epidemiologic analysis for the December 1992 report on Health Effects of Passive Smoking: Lung Cancer and Other Disorders: The Report of the United States Environmental Protection Agency [120]. This EPA report classified ETS as a Group A human carcinogen, which causes about 3,000 lung cancer deaths per year in the U.S. The findings from this report were used in the Broin v. Philip Morris litigation described above.
The epidemiologic methodology and conclusions of the EPA report have been severely criticized. One of the harshest critiques is the 92-page Decision issued by Federal Judge William L. Osteen on July 17, 1998, which overturned the report in the U.S. District Court [121]. For instance, in his conclusion Judge Osteen wrote: “In conducting the Assessment, EPA deemed it biologically plausible that ETS was a carcinogen. EPA’s theory was premised on the similarities between MS [mainstream smoke], SS [sidestream smoke], and ETS. In other chapters, the Agency used MS and ETS dissimilarities to justify methodology. Recognizing problems, EPA attempted to confirm the theory with epidemiologic studies. After choosing a portion of the studies, EPA did not find a statistically significant association. EPA then claimed the bioplausibility theory, renominated the a priori hypothesis, justified a more lenient methodology. With a new methodology, EPA demonstrated from the 88 selected studies a very low relative risk for lung cancer based on ETS exposure. Based on its original theory and the weak evidence of association, EPA concluded the evidence showed a causal relationship between cancer and ETS. The administrative record contains glaring deficiencies. . . .”
Even if one were to accept the flawed methodology of meta analysis they still have to overcome the fact that such weak statistical significance has never been accepted as proof of cause of any disease as stated in an award winning article in Science,
That’s the rationale for meta-analysis — a technique for combining many ambiguous studies to see whether they tend in the same direction (Science, 3 August 1990, p. 476).
But when Science asked epidemiologists to identify weak associations that are now considered convincing because they show up repeatedly, opinions were divided — consistently.
Challenge any of the tobacco control activist to name 3 causes of a disease that have been proven with the same weak statistical significance!
Then of course there is the joke of the century, of course that is the claim that there is no safe level of second hand smoke, this flies in the face of the accepted scientific principle that dose makes the poison, now the tobacco control activist will point to the LNT (linear no threshold model) which was based on the theory that there is no safe level of ionizing radiation. There are a few problems with the LNT model. Many critics of the model claim that although radiation is highly toxic they do not measure low enough. That when measured low enough that the dose response curve is not linear. The Surgeon General makes the claim of no safe level and yet has not produced one single study that even implies linearity.
Then of course there are the claims by tobacco control that heart attacks immediately go down as a result of smoking bans. Of course the biggest study done by researchers from the RAND Corporation, Congressional Budget Office, University of Wisconsin, and Stanford University is the first to examine the relationship between smoking bans and heart attack admissions and mortality trends in the entire nation, using national data.
MARLENE BAKKEN
Jun 19, 2010 @ 18:31:47
Bill Passed (House)How members voted(61 – 38) on SB SB 181 (Indoor Smoking Ban):
Yes votes: Consider the property owners the “little people”!
AM Garey Bies Rep.Bies@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Ted Zigmunt Rep.Zigmunt@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Alvin Ott Rep.Ott@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Phil Montgomery Rep.Montgomery@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Tom Nelson Rep.Nelson@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Margaret Krusick Rep.Krusick@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Pedro Colon Rep.Colon@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Josh Zepnick Rep.Zepnick@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Annette Williams Rep.WilliamsA@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Jason Fields Rep.Fields@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Frederick Kessler Rep.Kessler@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM David Cullen Rep.Cullen@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Tony Staskunas Rep.Staskunas@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Leon Young Rep.Youngl@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Barbara Toles Rep.Toles@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Tamara Grigsby Rep.Grigsby@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Jon Richards Rep.Richards@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Christine Sinicki Rep.Sinicki@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Sandy Pasch Rep.Pasch@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Terry Van Akkeren Rep.VanAkkeren@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Kitty Rhoades Rep.Rhoades@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Jeffrey Mursau Rep.Mursau@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Andy Jorgensen Rep.Jorgensen@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Fred Clark Rep.Clark@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Kim Hixson Rep.Hixson@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Mike Sheridan Rep.Sheridan@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Chuck Benedict Rep.Benedict@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Gary Hebl Rep.Hebl@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Keith Ripp Rep.Ripp@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Joseph Parisi Rep.Parisi@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Steve Hilgenberg Rep.Hilgenberg@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM John Townsend Rep.Townsend@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Richard Spanbauer Rep.Spanbauer@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Gordon Hintz Rep.Hintz@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Dean Kaufert Rep.Kaufert@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Penny Bernard Schaber Rep.BernardSchaber@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Mark Gottlieb Rep.Gottlieb@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Robert Turner Rep.Turner@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Cory Mason Rep.Mason@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Peter Barca Rep.Barca@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM John Steinbrink Rep.Steinbrink@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Kristen Dexter Rep.Dexter@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Amy Vruwink Rep.Vruwink@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Louis Molepske Jr. Rep.Molepske@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Marlin Schneider Rep.Schneider@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Nick Milroy Rep.Milroy@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Gary Sherman Rep.Sherman@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Mary Hubler Rep.Hubler@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Terese Berceau Rep.Berceau@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Spencer Black Rep.Black@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Mark Pocan Rep.Pocan@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Sondy Pope-Roberts Rep.Pope-Roberts@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Kelda Roys Rep.Roys@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Jeffrey Stone Rep.Stone@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Donna Seidel Rep.Seidel@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Jerry Petrowski Rep.Petrowski@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM James Soletski Rep.Soletski@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Karl Van Roy Rep.VanRoy@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Jeffrey Smith Rep.Smith@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Michael Huebsch Rep.Huebsch@legis.wisconsin.gov
AM Jennifer Shilling Rep.Shilling@legis.wisconsin.gov
NO Votes: Consider property owners “masters of their own destiny”!
AM Gary Tauchen
AM Leah Vukmir
AM Mark Honadel
AM Jim Ott
AM Dan Knodl
AM Robert Ziegelbauer
AM Steven Kestell
AM Ann Hraychuck
AM John Murtha
AM Stephen Nass
AM Stephen Nass
AM Thomas Lothian
AM Scott Newcomer
AM Dan Meyer
AM Donald Friske
AM Joel Kleefisch
AM Jeff Fitzgerald
AM Kevin Petersen
AM Joan Ballweg
AM Phil Garthwaite
AM Ed Brooks
AM Roger Roth Jr.
AM Pat Strachota
AM Daniel LeMahieu
AM Robin Vos
AM Samantha Kerkman
AM Jeffrey Wood
AM Scott Suder
AM Brett Davis
AM Scott Gunderson
AM Mark Gundrum
AM Mary Williams
AM John Nygren
AM Chris Danou
AM Mark Radcliffe
AM Lee Nerison
AM Bill Kramer
AM Rich Zipperer
AM Don Pridemore
MARLENE BAKKEN
Jun 19, 2010 @ 18:33:05
The state’s squandered taxes stolen from the smoking public and the well is running dry! According to a confidential memo from the National Association of Attorneys General, these “volume adjustments”are
shrinking so fast that if the rate as of September ’03(when the memo was written) were annualized, it would result in a $2.4 billion drop in payments by BigTobacco to the states, down 29% from what they paid when the settlement was signed.
http://www.forbes.com/2004/02/03/cz_sw_0202tobacco.html
Michael J. McFadden
Jun 20, 2010 @ 02:46:57
Well done Marshall! Love your explanation of the LNT. Funny thing is that with ETS given the same Class A Carcinogen classification as sunlight we’re now in a peculiar situation. For the government to be rationally consistent in its laws it needs to pass a law against patio dining. After all, sunscreen offers only partial protection, and partial protection from ventilation has been ruled useless for the “deadly threat” of wisps of smoke. And just as Antismokers claim workers have “no choice” but to work in smoking sections or Free Choice bars, the same holds true for people who wish to work at restaurants but would find themselves to work out under the deadly rays of the sun.
According to the United Nations’ World Health Organization over 60,000 people a year die from malignant melanoma (skin cancer) and virtually the only modern cause of malignant melanoma is sunlight. Just as with ETS, “no safe level” of exposure to this Class A Carcinogen has ever been established.
I made a similar argument, with fully referenced documentation in the online British Medical Journal a few years ago in reference to another Class A: the highly volatile ethyl alcohol. The only protection from invisible, nearly odorless alcohol vapors and their carcinogenic death toll upon innocent diners would be to ban all alcohol service in restaurants where food was served. Bars might be a bit trickier unless we convert over to the Clockwork Orange milk bars of course, but California can lead the way.
Of course I’m not serious about promoting patio and alcohol bans, but neither should anyone be serious about smoking bans: the “no safe level” argument holds just as well for the one as for the other. The only difference is that no one’s been tricked into pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into Antisunlight and Antialcohol lobbies … yet.
BMJ Reference: http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/330/7495/812#103642
Michael J. McFadden,
Author of “Dissecting Antismokers’ Brains”
Snitch on your neighbor! « People's Republic of Madison
Jul 27, 2010 @ 01:33:07
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